THE NUMBERS · 4 MIN READ

Reading a pressure trend

The barometer is the oldest forecasting instrument there is, and it still works. The trick is that the number matters far less than which way it's moving.

Barometric pressure is the weight of the atmosphere above you. Standard sea-level pressure is 29.92 inches of mercury — the reference every other reading is measured against.

High pressure generally means sinking air, which suppresses cloud growth and favors fair weather. Low pressure means rising air, which builds clouds and storms. That's the physics in one line.

A rough scale

30.30 and upStrong high. Dry, stable, boringly nice.
29.92–30.20Normal range. Watch the direction.
29.70 and fallingA weather system is working on you.
29.50sDeep low. Tropical systems live here.
Below 29.00Hurricane core territory.

The direction is the forecast

A single pressure reading is a snapshot, and snapshots don't tell you what's coming. The three-hour trend does. The same 30.05 means opposite things depending on where it came from:

FUEL AND SPARK

Falling pressure alongside a dew point of 70° or higher is the classic setup: plenty of moisture to work with, and a trigger arriving to lift it. Two measured numbers, one honest storm signal — no model required.

Why airports report it so precisely

Aircraft altimeters are barometers. A pilot setting the wrong pressure flies at the wrong altitude, so airport stations report pressure to hundredths of an inch and update it constantly. That precision is the reason a pressure trend built from airport observations is trustworthy enough to forecast with.

See it on your own sky
Fat Tail shows these numbers measured by the airport sensor nearest you — and explains each one when you tap it. Free forever, coming soon to iOS.
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